RC Poll: Issues for Va. General Assembly 2016

The Roanoke College Poll has again taken the pulse of Virginians on several issues of interest in the current 2016 General Assembly session and revisited some perennial issues. The Institute for Policy and Opinion Research interviewed 605 residents in Virginia between January 18 and January 26 and has a margin of error of +4 percent.

Ethics reform

Governor Terry McAuliffe's Commission to Ensure Integrity and Public Confidence in State Government met for the final time late last year and made several recommendations for the 2016 General Assembly session. Respondents generally favor a proposal that prohibits the use of political campaign funds for personal expenses (72%) and another that regulates receipt and reporting of gifts (67%), but they oppose proposed raises for legislators and additional funds designated exclusively for staff expenses (33% agreed; 57% disagreed with the proposal).

Redistricting

Respondents prefer that an independent commission be in charge of redrawing political boundaries every decade (47%), but a sizable minority (38%) is fine with the status quo role for the General Assembly. With regard to factors that should be considered when drawing districts, a majority of Virginians think that racial representation (66%) and political party representation (58%) are important. Less than half think compactness of districts (41%), integrity of communities of interest (35%), protecting incumbency (22%) or majority party advantage (12%) should be considered. Racial balance is thought to be the most important factor by 29 percent of respondents, while 17 percent said party balance or compactness of districts was most important, and 15 percent ranked maintaining communities of interest as paramount.

Gun Control

Although a "grand deal" has been struck on gun control for this session of the General Assembly, the issue will undoubtedly arise again, and public opinion remains divided on the topic. Virginians think it is more important to protect the right of Americans to own guns (50%) than it is to control gun ownership (41%). That is a larger spread than is seen nationally, but virtually unchanged in the Commonwealth from a year ago.

A plurality of those interviewed (49%) disagree with Attorney General Mark Herring's decision to stop recognizing concealed handgun carry permits from numerous states, but a majority (59%) approve of Governor McAuliffe's ban on firearms in executive buildings. Sentiment is decisively against defunding the governor's armed protective detail (72% opposed the idea). Strong majorities of Virginians still support requiring background checks at gun shows (86%) and universal checks for all sales (75%), which are similar results to previous years.

Other issues

As the issue has surfaced each of the past three legislative sessions, The Roanoke College Poll has asked citizens each year about their views on Medicaid expansion in Virginia. This year a change in question wording appears to be associated with a change in opinion. A majority (58%) favor expansion of the program, while just one-third (34%) oppose it. A similar, but different, question in 2014 and 2015 found small pluralities opposed to expansion. (Please see topline for question wording and previous results.)

A sizeable plurality think that judges in Virginia should be elected (45%) rather than have a commission make recommendations to the governor or legislature (31%), or have judges appointed by the General Assembly (14%). These figures are virtually unchanged from a year ago. Reflecting on the 2015 appointment of Justice Jane Roush to the state Supreme Court, a plurality (46%) think the General Assembly is correct in its standoff with Governor McAuliffe, while only 16 percent think the governor is correct.

Regarding larger questions related to sentencing reform, 55 percent of respondents think Virginia should reinstate parole, while 37 percent prefer to keep the status quo. Opinion is largely the same as when the question was asked last year.

Virginians remain in favor of voter ID regulations. Virtually unchanged from 2013 (when we previously asked the same question), 82 percent favor requiring the showing of a valid ID prior to voting, while 15 percent oppose the rule. A strong majority (71%) opposes allowing county clerks to refuse to issue marriage licenses if they have moral or religious objections.

Job approval, favorable ratings, direction of the nation and the state

More than half (58%) of Virginians think the country is on the wrong track, while 31 percent think it is headed in the right direction. At the same time, they are split regarding job approval for President Barack Obama with 45 percent approving and 45 percent disapproving. Obama's numbers are largely unchanged, while the evaluation of the nation is a few points more positive. Congressional approval sits at 7 percent, down from 14 percent a year ago.

Governor McAuliffe's approval rating has rebounded to 47 percent from a November 2015 decline, but assessment of the state of the Commonwealth is more pessimistic than a year ago (48% right direction; 36% wrong track).

Favorable ratings are up slightly for President Obama (46% favorable; 44% unfavorable), but down for Governor McAuliffe (38% favorable; 24% unfavorable), and for Senators Mark Warner (44% favorable; 21% unfavorable) and Tim Kaine (32% favorable; 26% unfavorable).

Methodology

Interviewing for The Roanoke College Poll was conducted by The Institute for Policy and Opinion Research at Roanoke College in Salem, Va. between January 18 and January 26, 2016. Interviewing for this poll was extended due extreme weather. A total of 605 Virginia residents 18 or older were interviewed. Telephone interviews were conducted in English. The random digit dial sample was obtained from ASDE Survey Sampler and included both Virginia land line and cell phone exchanges so that all cell phone and residential land line telephone numbers, including unlisted numbers from Virginia exchanges, had a known chance of inclusion. Cell phones constituted 35 percent of the completed interviews.

Questions answered by the entire sample of 605 residents are subject to a sampling error of plus or minus approximately 4 percent at the 95 percent level of confidence. This means that in 95 out of 100 samples like the one used here, the results obtained should be no more than 4 percentage points above or below the figure that would be obtained by interviewing all Virginia residents who have a home telephone or a cell phone. Where the results of subgroups are reported, the sampling error is higher.

Quotas were used to ensure that different regions of the Commonwealth were proportionately represented. The data were statistically weighted for gender, race, age, and political party. Weighting was done to match Virginia Census data. The margin of error was not adjusted for design effects due to weighting.

A copy of the questionnaire and all toplines may be found here.

The Roanoke College Poll is funded by Roanoke College as a public service.

For more about the Institute for Public Opinion Research, click here. 

CONTACT: Dr. Harry L. Wilson, Director, IPOR
(540) 375-2415 (Office)
wilson@roanoke.edu