RC Poll: McDonnell a good governor but should serve prison time; Opinions divided on Michael Brown, Eric Garner cases

A majority of Virginians (57%) think Bob McDonnell was a good governor overall, but also agree (57%) with the judge's sentence of prison time for his convictions on corruption charges, according to The Roanoke College Poll. Residents of the Commonwealth tend to agree (49%) with the decision in Ferguson, Mo. not to indict in the death of Michael Brown, but disagree (53%) with the decision in New York City not to indict in the death of Eric Garner. The Roanoke College Poll interviewed 602 residents in Virginia between January 12 and January 16 and has a margin of error of +4 percent.

Evaluation of the McDonnell term as governor and sentencing

While a majority of respondents (57%) think that Bob McDonnell was a good governor of Virginia, an equal number (57%) agree that he should have been sentenced to time in prison. A large majority thinks that the Commonwealth was either better off (45%) or about the same (28% the same or unsure) when he left office in 2014, while only 26 percent say things were better when he became governor in 2010.

There are some partisan differences beneath the surface, as just half (50%) of Democrats think he was a good governor, compared to 71 percent of Republicans. Democrats (67%) are also more likely to say that he should have been sentenced to prison (51% of Republicans think he should serve time). The evaluations of 2014 compared to 2010 were much closer (52% of Republicans and 44% of Democrats say things were better in 2014).

Race and the actions of police

The poll also asked a series of questions related to the shooting death of Michael Brown in Ferguson and the choking death of Eric Garner in New York City. Responses generally tracked closely with those obtained in national surveys conducted in December by the Pew Center and NBC/Marist.

A plurality (49%) of Virginians think the decision not to indict Officer Darren Wilson in the death of Brown was correct. Only 29 percent overall, but 71 percent of blacks think it was the wrong decision. In the New York case, a majority overall (53%) and a large majority of blacks (80%) think the decision not to indict the officer in Garner's death was the wrong decision.

When asked if race was factor in these cases, respondents were divided. In Ferguson, 44 percent thought it was not a factor, while 42 percent think it was (22% major factor; 20% minor factor). In New York, slightly fewer (38%) think race was not a factor, while 42 percent think it was (22% major factor; 20% minor factor).

Virginians generally trust police in their community to treat blacks and whites equally (46% have a great deal of confidence and 31% have a fair amount) and not to use excessive force on suspects (47% have a great deal of confidence and 31% have a fair amount). As above, there are significant differences in the views of whites and blacks on all of these questions, but all of the results, overall and when examined by race, are within the margins of error when compared to the national surveys.

Analysis

"Despite some partisan differences, Virginians generally assess the McDonnell governorship as positive, but think he was correctly sentenced to prison for his convictions," said Dr. Harry Wilson, director of the Institute for Policy and Opinion Research. "Just as interesting as those differences, though, is that half of Democrats think he was a good governor and half of Republicans think he was sentenced correctly."

"Regarding the two high-profile cases in Mo. and N.Y., Virginians tend to see them quite similarly to how the nation views them. While there are clear and significant differences in perspectives between the races in the Commonwealth, those are also reflective of the nation."

Methodology

Interviewing for The Roanoke College Poll was conducted by The Institute for Policy and Opinion Research at Roanoke College in Salem, Va. between January 12 and January 16, 2015. A total of 602 Virginia residents were interviewed. The sample included both land lines and cell phones and was created so that all cell phone and residential telephone numbers, including unlisted numbers, had a known chance of inclusion. Cell phones constituted 39 percent of the completed interviews.

Questions answered by the entire sample of 602 residents are subject to a sampling error of plus or minus approximately 4 percent at the 95 percent level of confidence. This means that in 95 out of 100 samples like the one used here, the results obtained should be no more than 4 percentage points above or below the figure that would be obtained by interviewing all Virginians who have a home telephone or a cell phone. Where the results of subgroups are reported, the sampling error is higher.

Quotas were used to ensure that different regions of the Commonwealth were proportionately represented. The data were statistically weighted for gender, race, and age.

A copy of the questionnaire and all frequencies may be found here.

The recent poll on Virginia General Assembly issues may be viewed here. 

CONTACT: Dr. Harry L. Wilson, Director, IPOR
(540) 375-2415 (Office)
wilson@roanoke.edu