RC Poll: Virginians think McDonnell's behavior typical, but deserving of prison, also weigh in on Medicaid and budget shortfall

A majority of Virginia voters (56%) think former Governor Bob McDonnell should serve time in prison although nearly three-fourths (74%) believe that his actions are fairly typical behavior for elected officials, according to the Roanoke College Poll. Less than one-third (29%) of respondents think the convictions and public humiliation are sufficient punishment for McDonnell.

The latest results from the Roanoke College Poll offer a look at the opinions of likely Virginia voters about newsworthy subjects related to lawmakers, budgetary issues and the state of the country. The Roanoke College Poll interviewed 630 likely voters in Virginia between September 13 and September 19 and has a margin of error of +3.9 percent.

The budget shortfall and Medicaid expansion

Although Governor Terry McAuliffe and the General Assembly agreed to necessary budget cuts last week to offset shortages, Virginians continue to express support for a combination of budget cuts and tax and fee increases to offset future budget problems. While nearly one-fourth (24%) preferred only cuts, the majority (61%) would like to see both budget cuts and revenue enhancements. Only 5 percent expressed a preference for only tax and fee increases. A majority (54%) oppose freezing the salaries of state workers as a way of helping to close budget shortfalls, while 29 percent support that idea.

In the continuing debate over Medicaid expansion, public opinion is mostly unchanged since the July 2014 Roanoke College Poll. Virginia voters oppose expansion by a 49%-41% margin, within the margin of error from July. They also oppose (44%-41%) the possibility of Governor McAuliffe using $40 million in leftover funds from this year's budget to provide health coverage for 20,000 mental health patients and encourage others to sign up for benefits for which they are already eligible, a plan that would require additional funding in future years.

Views on the country and the commonwealth, elected officials

President Barack Obama's job approval has dropped to 36 percent, the lowest seen in the Roanoke College Poll. The 52 percent disapproval is only one-point off the high mark recorded in July. Congressional approval is stagnant at 7 percent.

Virginians' views of the country are the same as in the July 2014 RC Poll, the most pessimistic in over two years. Only 21 percent think the country is headed in the right direction, while 68 percent say it is on the wrong track.

Mark Warner remains the favorite elected official (and candidate) in the Commonwealth with a 58 percent favorable rating. He is followed by Governor Terry McAuliffe (45%), Senator Tim Kaine (40%), and President Obama (40%). Republican Senate candidate Ed Gillespie's favorable rating has improved to 20 percent (19% unfavorable), but 52 percent still do not know him well enough to have an opinion. Libertarian candidate Robert Sarvis remains largely unknown, with 75 percent not knowing enough about him to have an opinion.

For the first time in the Roanoke College Poll, voters are as likely to be pessimistic as optimistic regarding the state of the Commonwealth (41% right direction, 41% wrong track). At the same time, Governor McAuliffe's job approval has climbed to 48 percent, with only 20 percent disapproving.

Analysis

"Response to the McDonnell conviction is interesting, but, perhaps, not too surprising," said Dr. Harry Wilson, director of the Institute for Policy and Opinion Research. "Given that a majority of those polled said McDonnell should serve prison time and that nearly three-fourths think his behavior is typical, then should we conclude that most elected officials deserve prison?"

"The public remains marginally opposed to Medicaid expansion and prefers that future budget shortfalls be met with budget cuts and tax or fee increases. Those sentiments are congruent with previous RC Poll results. It is also interesting that Gov. McAuliffe's ratings are climbing while opinion regarding the direction of Virginia is declining."

Methodology

Interviewing for The Roanoke College Poll was conducted by The Institute for Policy and Opinion Research at Roanoke College in Salem, Va. between September 13 and September 19, 2014. A total of 630 likely voters in Virginia were interviewed. The sample included both land lines and cell phones and was created so that all cell phone and residential telephone numbers, including unlisted numbers, had a known chance of inclusion. Cell phones constituted 31 percent of the completed interviews.

Questions answered by the entire sample of 630 likely voters are subject to a sampling error of plus or minus approximately 3.9 percent at the 95 percent level of confidence. This means that in 95 out of 100 samples like the one used here, the results obtained should be no more than 3.9 percentage points above or below the figure that would be obtained by interviewing all likely voters in Virginia who have a home telephone or a cell phone. The margin of error is larger for any subsets of the 630 total.

Quotas were used to ensure that different regions of the Commonwealth were proportionately represented. The data were statistically weighted for gender, race, and age using the 2013 state exit poll as a benchmark. IPOR does not weight for political party.

A copy of the topline questionnaire and all frequencies may be found here.

Released: September 25, 2014
Contact Name: Dr. Harry Wilson
Contact Phone: (540) 375-2415 (office), (540) 992-1333 (home), (540) 293-4206 (cell)
Contact Email: wilson@roanoke.edu