Political Anxiety Reflects Partisan Changes
Reaction to the 2024 Presidential election is mixed, although a majority (57%) of Virginians are simply happy that it’s over. One-fourth (26%) said they were shocked by the election, according to the Roanoke College Poll. The Institute for Policy and Opinion Research (IPOR) at Roanoke College interviewed 652 Virginia residents between November 11 and November 16, 2024. The survey has a weighted margin of error of 4.40%.
Descriptions of President-elect Donald Trump also vary, with 29% associating him with being a leader, but almost as many (26%) think of him as a criminal. Disruptor (17%) and fascist (15%) were chosen more than visionary (10%) as a word that best describes him. Just four-in-ten (40%) think that Trump understands and cares about people like them.
Job Approval, Favorable/Unfavorable, and Directions of Virginia and Nation
Evaluations of the direction of the country and the Commonwealth are mostly unchanged from recent Roanoke College quarterly polls. A small majority (52%) thinks that Virginia is headed in the right direction, while 73% think the country is on the wrong track. Job approval for President Joe Biden (41%) is his best report since May 2023. Governor Glenn Youngkin’s rating (52%) is generally steady.
Virginians remain more likely to view Youngkin favorably (48% favorable/38% unfavorable) compared with other officials. Biden’s favorable rating has risen slightly but is still negative (41% favorable/54% unfavorable). Views of Trump (41% favorable/55% unfavorable) equal his all-time best, but are barely more positive than the past several years.
The direction of the country and Virginia reflect some partisan differences, but the job approval and favorable/unfavorable ratings again show massive partisan divergence.
Political Anxiety
While the overall IPOR political anxiety index tends to remain more stable, we see significant fluctuations between the major political parties. This appears to be related to which party holds power in Washington. The overall index of 76.71 is down from the May 2024 measurement, but Democrats moved from -10.39 in May to November’s reading of 101.77, while Republicans moved from 166.59 to 13.52.
Most respondents trust the government in Washington to do what is right only sometimes (60%) or never (17%), but a majority (59%) thinks that ordinary citizens can influence the federal government. Slightly more (63%) think their side has been losing more than winning on important issues. Half (50%) of those polled are dissatisfied with how the federal government is working and another 18% are angry. Half (50%) now thinks the country’s best years are ahead, but 47% think the best years are in the rear-view mirror. A large majority (84%) of Virginians sees the nation as divided regarding the important issues facing it.
The greatest party differences on the questions that comprise the index can be seen in “winning more than losing” and “best years ahead or behind.” Those results can be found in the crosstabs at the conclusion of the topline.
A Brief Look Ahead; Polling and the Media
Expectations for the next four years were decidedly mixed with a plurality (32%) of respondents being hopeful, but nearly as many (28%) being cautiously optimistic or fearful (25%). Another 13% of those polled are pessimistic. Similarly, opinion is split if the country will be more unified when it elects the next president in 2028 (34%), more divided (32%), or as divided as it is currently (32%). Currently, Virginians are divided whether they think the federal government makes their life better (48%) or worse (46%).
Half (50%) of respondents trust the polling industry a great deal (13%) or some (37%), but nearly as many say their trust level is not very much (30%) or none at all (19%). A majority (52%) thinks that pollsters slant the results to fit their views, while fewer (41%) think pollsters try to measure opinions accurately. It may be of little solace, but pollsters fare better than the news media, where a plurality have not very much trust (39%) or none at all (21%) that the media report the news fully, accurately, and fairly.
The Roanoke College Poll is funded by Roanoke College as a public service.
Analysis
“These results reflect the deep divisions in the country and the Commonwealth that persist after the election,” said Dr. Harry Wilson, political analyst for IPOR and Professor Emeritus of Political Science at Roanoke College. “Much of what appears to be opinion stability masks the underlying changes that occur between Democrats and Republicans when the other party gains power in Washington. Life tends to be seen as good when ‘your guys’ are in power and bad when ‘the other guys’ are in power.”
“Views of President-elect Trump remain relatively stable if often diametrically opposed. That isn’t surprising given that he was well-known prior to becoming president and even more familiar after serving four years in that capacity. Like him or dislike him; hate him or love him; Virginians think that they know him.”
Methodology
Interviewing for the Roanoke College Poll was conducted by The Institute for Policy and Opinion Research (IPOR) at Roanoke College in Salem, Virginia, between November 11 and November 16, 2024. A total of 652 completed interviews came from random telephone calls and texts to 413 Virginians, and 239 responses were drawn from a proprietary online panel of Virginians. Interviews were conducted in English. Cellphones constituted 75% of the completed phone and text to web interviews.
The phone sampling frame was provided by Marketing Systems Group with the landline sample generated by random digit phone numbers with area and exchange code coverage in proportion to the population density in Virginia; the cellular sampling frame was randomly divided so that half of the potential respondents would receive a text message with an invitation to complete the survey on their own before we would call them, and the other half would be called and interviewed over the phone by a live agent and sent a text message afterwards with an invitation if the respondent was not available when we called. Cint USA, Inc, facilitated the online panel with completion time and attention check questions used for quality control. IPOR regularly uses bootstrap analysis of post-survey results to control for quality within the blended frames.
Questions answered by the sample of 652 respondents are subject to a weighted error margin (including design effect) of plus or minus 4.40% at a confidence level of 95%. This means that in 95 out of 100 samples such as the one used here, the results should be at most 4.40 percentage points above or below the figure obtained by interviewing all Virginians with a home telephone or a cellphone. Where the results of subgroups are reported, the error margin is higher.
Quotas were used to ensure that different regions of the Commonwealth were proportionately represented. The data were statistically weighted for gender, race and age. Weighting was done to match Virginia data in the 2022 one-year American Community Survey (ACS). The design effect was 1.317.
A copy of the questions and all toplines may be found here.
More information about the Roanoke College Poll may be obtained by contacting Dr. Harry Wilson, senior political analyst for the Institute for Policy and Opinion Research at wilson@roanoke.edu or the Roanoke College Marketing and Communications Office at rcnews@roanoke.edu.
roanoke.edu/IPOR