Virginia Trust Index Report 2024

The Virginia Trust Index is relatively unchanged since August 2023 and remains well below the pre-pandemic value, suggesting a scaring effect. A larger share of Virginians are uncertain about the trustworthiness of others. The Trust Index is substantially higher for Democrats than Republicans heading into the 2024 Presidential election. 

Why is social trust important?  

Social trust refers to trust in other members of society. How honest and reliable do members of society believe each other to be? The level of trust in a society strongly predicts economic success and is an important aspect of civic culture. It is positively linked to outcomes such as health, happiness and entrepreneurship, which are associated with economic growth. How? Trust reduces transaction costs, particularly for agreements between strangers, promoting productivity and economic growth.   

Trust in the United States  

One way to measure trust is through survey questions. Since 1972, the NORC at the University of Chicago has included three questions on their national General Social Survey (GSS) pertaining to trust, which are asked every other year, most recently in 2022:  

1. Do you think most people would try to take advantage of you if they got a chance, or would they try and be fair?  
2. Would you say that most of the time people try to be helpful, or that they are mostly just looking out for themselves?  
3. Generally speaking, would you say that most people can be trusted or that you can’t be too careful in dealing with people?  

Trust in the United States has been declining in recent decades. In 1972, 46% reported believing most people could be trusted. The sentiment peaked in 1984 at 49% and has averaged 37% between 1972 and 2022. The most recent reading is a series low of 26% after a significant decline since 2018. Studies suggest trust has declined because of increased social issues like isolation, loneliness, greed, dishonesty and crime.   

Positive responses to the two other questions about trust are also on the decline. In 2022, 44% of respondents thought that most people would try to be fair, and 43% reported that they believe people usually try to be helpful. Trust is an essential aspect of negotiation, particularly between strangers. Declining trust reduces productivity and hampers economic growth. The 2024 GSS responses are scheduled for release in 2025. 

Trust in Virginia  

In February 2017, the Institute for Policy and Opinion Research (IPOR) at Roanoke College added the same three GSS questions about social trust to a quarterly survey. IPOR continued surveying during the pandemic, so there is no gap in survey collection, offering a glimpse into how fair, helpful and trusting Virginians believe each other to be, including throughout the pandemic. The inaugural Virginia Trust Index Report was released in September 2023. 

The most recent reading of the three questions about trust in the commonwealth was in August 2024. One-third of respondents believe that most people can be trusted, while almost two-thirds say that you cannot be too careful. Although this is less than a majority, more Virginians believe that, generally speaking, most people can be trusted than in the U.S. as a whole, where 26% believe that to be the case. There has been little change in these readings since August 2023.  

Less than a majority believe that most people are fair and helpful. Forty-eight percent believe that most people would try to be fair rather than take advantage of you, a value slightly higher than the national share of 44%. Forty-four percent report that most of the time, people try to be helpful compared to 48% who believe others are mostly looking out for themselves; 43% believe others to be helpful most of the time at the national level.  

The largest shift from a year ago concerns the share of respondents who reported that they did not know about others' fairness, helpfulness and trustworthiness. Those shares fell from 4.0% and 3.3% for the fair and trust questions, respectively, to close to 1% each. The share responding that they did not know about the helpfulness of others more than doubled since August 2023, jumping from 3.3% to 8.2%. This suggests there is more certainty regarding whether people are generally trying to be fair and can be trusted, but much less so regarding the helpfulness of others.   

Virginia Trust Index  

The Virginia Trust Index combines responses from the three questions pertaining to trust in the commonwealth. All values are relative to February 2017, the first time IPOR collected the trust data. When the index is equal to 100, less than 100 or greater than 100, trust in Virginia is the same, lower or higher than that baseline, respectively.   

Until May 2020, the Trust Index was relatively stable, neither increasing nor decreasing by large amounts; the average value was 99.7, very close to the baseline value. At the onset of the pandemic, the Trust Index jumped almost 20 points to 119.7. It remained elevated for a year, with an average value of 113.7 between May 2020 and May 2021, before a multi-year decline to a series low in May 2023 (86.4). The index has leveled off, but at a lower level than prior to the pandemic. Although the average index value since February 2020 is 98.2, which is very close to the pre-pandemic value, that value is heavily influenced by the surge in the year following the pandemic. Since August 2021, the index has averaged 92.3. 

What is driving the path of trust in Virginia? The significant increase in trust that persisted between May 2020 and May 2021 is likely due to a we-are-in-this-together attitude. Despite frustrations over pandemic-related restrictions such as closures of non-essential businesses and mask mandates, Virginians relied on each other for help, and a greater share found each other to be fair, helpful and trustworthy. The steady decline in trust after May 2021 likely reflects growing frustrations with continued COVID-19-related restrictions such as mask mandates, a divide over newer vaccine mandates and general political discord. With the pandemic in the rearview window, we have settled into a lower level of trust in Virginia. Is this a permanent scaring? Or a transitory phase? Only time will tell.  

Index Analysis  

“Trust in the commonwealth was relatively stable for years before the pandemic, neither increasing nor decreasing by a large amount. Suddenly, at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, trust jumped by almost 20 points to a series high and remained elevated for a year,” said Dr. Alice Louise Kassens, John S. Shannon Professor of Economics and Senior Analyst at the Roanoke College Institute for Policy and Opinion Research. “Trust then began a steady decline over the next two years, hitting a series low in May 2023. A sudden increase in trust is common during a crisis as people rally together. What is curious about the pandemic is the subsequent rapid decline from those highs and the subsequent leveling out at a lower value rather than a return to “trend.” As the we-are-in-this-together attitude dissipated, frustrations over COVID-19-related mandates, including vaccine mandates, created divides across communities, reducing our trust in one another. Has a permanent scaring occurred? Will trust ever return to its prepandemic values? We will have to wait and see, but we should hope this is not the case. Trust is important for a productive economy, so rebuilding some lost trust will help the Virginia economy navigate future business cycles.”  

Trust and politics 

With a tight presidential election on the horizon and Virginians closely split on their choice, examining trust across political party affiliations is of interest. Democrats and Republicans experience similar trust pathways; however, trust is magnified when one’s party controls the White House. At the last reading before the 2024 presidential election, the Trust Index for Democrats was 102.0 in August 2024, almost twenty points higher than that for Republicans.  

Political Analysis  

"In an election year when the political vitriol is flowing frequently and heavily, it isn't surprising to see a decline in the trust index,” says IPOR Senior Analyst Dr. Harry Wilson. “While the overall rise and fall impact the parties similarly, both Democrats and Republicans are more trusting of other people when their party controls the White House. Some of the partisan difference may be a 'leaching effect' from other areas, such as trust in government and trust in the media, where Republicans are typically more wary than Democrats." 

Methodology  

Interviewing for quarterly Roanoke College Polls is conducted by The Institute for Policy and Opinion Research at Roanoke College in Salem, Virginia, generally in February, May, August, and November, with a sample of completed interviews ranging between 650 and 750 from random telephone calls to Virginians and a proprietary online panel of Virginians. Telephone interviews were conducted in English. Cell phones constitute 50-55% of the completed phone interviews. Marketing Systems Group provided the telephone dialing frame, and Lucid, LLC facilitated the online panel.  

Questions answered by the samples are subject to a sampling error of plus or minus approximately 4.0 percent at the 95% confidence level. This means that in 95 out of 100 samples like the one used here, the results should be at most 4.0 percentage points above or below the figure obtained by interviewing all Virginians with a home telephone or a cell phone. Where the results of subgroups are reported, the sampling error is higher.  

Quotas were used to ensure that different regions of the commonwealth were proportionately represented. The data were statistically weighted for gender, race and age. Weighting was done to match Virginia data in the appropriate one-year American Community Survey (ACS). The margin of error was not adjusted for design effects due to weighting.  

A copy of the questions and all toplines may be found here. 

More information about the Roanoke College Poll may be obtained by contacting Dr. Alice Kassens at kassens@roanoke.edu or 540-375-2428 or the Roanoke College Marketing and Communications Office at 540-375-2282 or rcnews@roanoke.edu. roanoke.edu/IPOR