RC Poll: Beneath the surface of Brat’s narrow lead in VA 7th district

Republican incumbent Rep. Dave Brat holds a 47%-43% lead over Democratic challenger Abigail Spanberger, according to The New York Times Upshot/Siena College Poll. The Institute for Policy and Opinion Research (IPOR) conducts the Roanoke College Poll and contributes to the Upshot/Siena Poll.* The poll includes interviews with 501 likely voters in 7^th Congressional District in Virginia on September 10 and 11 and has a margin of error of +4.3 percent. 

This New York Times Upshot/Siena College Poll is part of an ongoing project polling pivotal Congressional races across the country. Polling support for this project was provided by five polling organizations, including IPOR. 

The press release from Siena College contains methodology and all crosstabs for reference.   Brat carried the 7^th district 58%-42% in 2016 while President Trump bested Hillary Clinton by 6 percent, and Republican Ed Gillespie won the district by 3 percent in last year's gubernatorial contest. 

The district leans Republican at this point, but it reflects a partisan split. A plurality (48%) would like to see Republicans control Congress after the midterm elections (42% prefer Democrats in control). A slight majority (52%) support Robert Mueller's investigation into potential Trump campaign Russian ties (39% oppose it), but 56 percent oppose impeaching Trump at this time, and 70 percent think that Democrats will try to impeach him if they take control of Congress. Half (50%) agree that the investigation is a politically motivated witch hunt (44% disagree). A plurality (46%) disagree with the statement that Trump has committed federal crimes, but 43 percent agree that he has.

Political party is the most important factor in predicting responses, with Republicans preferring Brat by 88%-7% and Democrats favoring Spanberger by 94%-1%. Independents are split (44% Brat, 43% Spanberger). Men favor Brat (57%-34%), while women prefer Spanberger (52%-39%). Those voters with less than a bachelor's degree said they will vote for Brat (54%-37%), while those with a B.A. or beyond plan to vote for Spanberger (50%-42%). These differences appear in most other questions also. 

"The 7th district is one that Republicans must hold if they hope to keep control of the House of Representatives," said Harry Wilson, director of IPOR and the Roanoke College Poll. "The race is close and will likely remain so. This election will turn on who can get their base out to vote on November 6. Most of the districts being polled by this project have been very close, many within one or two percentage points."

*Roanoke College is participating with Siena College Research Institute in this unique polling project. Other participants are Reconnaissance Market Research, M. Davis & Company, and The Public Opinion Research Lab at the University of North Florida. The project is supported by The New York Times Upshot, which is uploading interviews in real time on their website. The project will poll in up to 60 pivotal Congressional races from across the country, ending on November 4, two days before the midterm elections. It is likely that other Congressional districts in Virginia will be polled as part of this project.

More information about IPOR and the Roanoke College Poll may be obtained by contacting Dr. Harry Wilson at wilson@roanoke.edu or (540) 375-2415 or the Roanoke College Public Relations Office at (540) 375-2282. The Roanoke College Poll is funded by Roanoke College as a public service. 

For more about the Institute for Public Opinion Research, click here.